Desperate Measures for a Failed Occupation
As we predicted in these pages 4 years ago, Iraq has become a horrific quagmire, and it appears impossible to judge whether its worse to stay or worse to leave...
On the horns of this dilemma, Bush-Cheney have opted to escalate the "war", a reckless gambler's move, which, given the minimal confidence he enjoys among the public, the congress, the military, and our allies around the world, seems almost pathological.
Secure Baghdad by kicking in MORE doors in house to house searches? More heavily armed and jumpy non-Arabic-speaking soldiers at random checkpoints throughout the city? And when we find Shia and Sunni shooting at each other, do we take sides, or do we shoot at them all, or do we walk away? Are we really going to confront the Mahdi Army, as hinted? Or will the Shia militias drop back, allowing the Shia government to work with us in persecuting the Sunni? That would draw the Saudis in. What a mess!
There's more: Bush's plan calls for using Kurdish troops in Baghdad to suppress the Sunni - Shia violence. That's right, come on you Kurds, get off the sidelines and join the fray!
Now, behind the Kurds are the Turks, eyeing nervously the potential for the emergence of an independent Kurdistan. When Rice recently warned the Turks to stay out, PM Erdogan practically laughed in her face; "We have a 350 km border with Iraq. We have historic relations ... the United States is 10,000 km away from Iraq, and yet is it not intervening in Iraq's internal affairs?"
But most dangerously, this surge plan may be a smokescreen to give cover to a policy of escalation against Iran, laying the groundwork for dual ends, to blame the Iraqi fiasco on Iranian meddling, and to reach a level of provocation where hostilities can be initiated on a broad scale against Iran without first going to the Congress or the UN. Note that a second aircraft carrier group has been sent to the region, and the new Centcom commander is an admiral. Iranian 'diplomats' have been seized in Erbil (Kurdistan) and Baghdad. Last week an American nuclear attack submarine surfaced under a Japanese oil tanker just off the Iranian coast.
For those of us outside the Bush Bubble, this course of action seems sheer lunacy. Is he just bereft of good judgement, or is he mad, sociopathic? Is he drinking again? Is it the Armageddon thing? His circle of abuse is set to widen once more; when are we going to put a stop to it? There was a moment during the Watergate scandal when doubts arose over Nixon's mental state; from that point on the impeachment momentum accelerated. We may be seeing such a point in the near future. This is not lost on Congress. With the new Democratic majority, and many Republicans awaking to the danger, watching Congressional Hearings on C-Span these days is pretty intense.
A note regarding impeachment. The airwaves are full of people saying if we impeached Bush, we'd only get Cheney, or liberal talk hosts cackling over Nancy Pelosi becoming president if we got Cheney out too. Actually, the Ford presidency shows how it works: No-one wanted Nixon's Veep, the ridiculous Spiro Agnew, to become president, so corruption charges were brought against him and he resigned. Then, in accordance with section 2 of the 25th amendment, the President nominated a new Vice-President, to be confirmed by Congress. That was Ford.
The worst reason for not impeaching Bush and Cheney is that their clock will almost have run out anyway. Impeachment is the way- the only way- we can officially and for the record state that specific crimes were committed and that they constitute unacceptable behavior for our leaders, and that we condemn and renounce them forever. And we must do that.
more on the Iranian dimension: The Washington Note
And the Baghdad situation: Juan Cole
And this excellent piece: The Iraq Insurgency- anatomy of a tribal rebellion
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